Alright, the pre-show has started on E! network but I'm not going to comment on any of that. The formal blog will begin at 8pm when ABC's coverage starts. I guarantee you will see the interviewers butcher the names of some of the stars. Regis was doing the interviews last year and screwed up at least once (can't remember who it was though).
Anyway, here are my picks. I bolded the movies that I saw in each category to at least be honest if I had actually seen the movie or not.
BEST PICTURE:
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Pick: I can't see "Benjamin Button" or "The Reader" winning ("Wall-E" or "The Dark Knight" should have been here over "The Reader"). "Frost/Nixon" was a great movie but not a true movie going experience like "Slumdog" or "Milk" was. "Slumdog" should win here since it encompassed going back and forth in time and just looked like a very unique movie. "Milk" was a more powerful movie but I'm going with "Slumdog Millionaire".
BEST ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Pick: I love Meryl Streep. Even in goofy movies like "Death Becomes Her" and "The River Wild", she always plays pretty nifty characters. From what I heard all but Jolie has a shot (good, because I can't stand her) but I'm going to with Kate Winslet here. I saw "Revolutionary Road" and she'll probably be rewarded for two great performances. I pray to god though she doesn't say in her speech "gather" like she did in the Golden Globes. I love the brits but that's a little too british for me.
BEST ACTOR:
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Pick: Ugh, this is tough. I saw "The Wrestler" first and thought Mickey Rourke was truly a wrestler and was the role but then saw "Milk" and thought Sean Penn was even better. This could go either way...but put a gun to my head (Mike Francesa reference) my gut says Mickey Rourke will win but Sean Penn should win here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Pick: Another tough call. I hear Penelope Cruz getting a lot of accolades but Marisa Tomei has a lot of steam too. This is a weird category to pick and even the "Doubt" actresses have a chance or winning here. I'm going take Marissa Tomei but its a shaky pick. If this was Vegas, I'd be taking the "bare breasts" parlay by taking Tomei and Winslet.
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Pick: The only category I got to see all the nominees and of course its the one that Heath Ledger is sure to win. If he didn't die, I don't know if he'd still win (I'd go with Philip Seymour Hoffman here instead) but it looks like Ledger will take it followed by a standing ovation.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Pick: Gotta take "Slumdog" here. It looked like a tough movie to film. "Milk" had some pretty cool shots too but "Slumdog" is my pick here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"
Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Marttin McDonagh, "In Bruges"
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, "WALL-E"
Pick: Hmmm...I only saw one of these movies so I'm not sure here. "Wall-E" seems like a good story but there's no dialogue early on. "In Bruges" looked TERRIBLE in the previews but its a good movie apparently. I hard a lot of good things about "Happy-Go-Lucky" and some of the acting performances should be have been recognized so I'm going with "Happy-Go-Lucky" for kicks.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Hare, "The Reader"
Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt"
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Pick: If "Slumdog" is going to win best picture, it most likely will win this category so I'm thinking they will win. However, "Doubt" had such a mysterious storyline that raelly puts a lot of doubt about what you've just seen, I'm going to select "Doubt" here even though the "Slumdog" express will probably take it.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM"
The Baader-Meinhof Complex" (Germany)
"The Class" (France)
"Departures" (Japan)
"Revanche" (Austria)
"Waltz with Bashir" (Israel)
Pick: I didn't see any of these movies but everything I've read says that "Waltz with Bashir" is amazing. I'll go with "Waltz" for the pick. The title makes me think of Martin Bashir, the interviewer who exposed Michael Jackson as a crazy person.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
"Bolt"
"Kung Fu Panda"
"WALL-E"
Pick: "Wall-E" should win here and if it doesn't, I'll get angry. The other two movies looked stupid though if you ask a 5 year old, they'd want to kick me in the nuts.
BEST ART DIRECTION
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"
"Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Revolutionary Road"
Pick: I'm not sure what "Art Direction" is and its odd "Slumdog" isn't nominated here since it seems like a true work of art but I'll go with "Benjamin Button" here since it won't win any of the major awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Changeling" Tom Stern
"Slumdog Millionaire," Anthony Dod Mantle
"The Reader," Chris Menges
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Claudio Miranda
"The Dark Knight," Wally Pfister
Pick: Should be "Slumdog" although "Benjamin Button" might steal this one. If "The Dark Knight" wins, I will need a neck massage as it will spontaneously combust in memory of watching that movie.
BEST FILM EDITING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
"The Dark Knight," Lee Smith
"Frost/Nixon," Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
"Milk," Elliot Graham
"Slumdog Millionaire," Chris Dickens
Pick: I'll go with "Slumdog" here since it goes all over the place and must have been a pain in the ass to pull all the film together. I will also be pissed if "The Dark Knight" wins here (my neck too).
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Australia," Catherine Martin
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Jacqueline West
"The Duchess," Michael O'Conner
"Milk", Danny Glicker
"Revolutionary Road," Albert Wolsky
Pick: Hmmm...usually some crazy period piece wins this movie and that would be "Australia", "Benjamin Button", "Revolutionary Road". I'd like to see "Revolutionary Road" win here since it deserved more accolades and "Benjamin Button" seems like the easy pick but I'm going with "Australia" here since it seems like the only true epic period movie (even though I heard it was terrible).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)"
"Encounters at the End of the World"
"The Garden"
"Man on Wire"
"Trouble the Water"
Pick: I'll go with "Man On Wire" here mainly because its the only nominee here I saw. Its also a great love letter to the Twin Towers. Seek this out if you can.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Slumdog Millionaire," "Jai Ho," A.R. Rahman
"Slumdog Millionaire," "O Saya," A.R. Rahman & M.I.A.
"WALL-E," "Down To Earth," Peter Gabriel & Thomas Newman
Pick: I'm a huge Peter Gabriel fan but can't say how his song fit into "Wall-E". The two Slumdog songs fit perfectly into the movie. Although "Jai Ho" is the more popular song since they used it for the goofy dance thing at the end of the movie, I'll take "O Saya" since it worked well within the movie. I'd love to see Peter Gabriel accept an award and join Phil Collins as "former Genesis lead singers who have also won an Oscar"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button," Alexandre Desplat
"Defiance," James Newton Howard
"Milk," Danny Elfman
"Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman
"WALL-E," Thomas Newman
Pick: This is all about music so I'll going with "Wall-E" here since the first 45 minutes had no dialogue. Without dialogue you need sound and music to carry the film. "Slumdog" will probably win here though.
BEST MAKEUP
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Colleen Callaghan, Fionagh Cush
"The Dark Knight" Peter Robb-King, John Caglione Jr.
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army" Mike Elizalde, Thom Floutz
Pick: All you hear about is how neat Brad Pitt looked aging backwards in "Benjamin Button" so that's who I'll go with.
BEST SOUND EDITING
"The Dark Knight," Richard King
"Iron Man" Frank Eulner, Christopher Boyes
"Slumdog Millionaire," Tom Sayers
"WALL-E," Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
"Wanted," Wylie Stateman
Pick: I'm not sure what these guys do. I'll go with "Iron Man" here but its a blind pick".
BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Mark Weingarten, David Parker, Michael Semanick
"The Dark Knight," Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
"Slumdog Millionaire," Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
"WALL-E," Ben Burtt, Tom Myers, Michael Semanick
"Wanted," Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt
Pick: Another blind pick...I'll take "Wall-E" but again, Slumdog could easliy win these two sound categories.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Eric Barba
"The Dark Knight," Chris Corbould, Nick Davis, Paul Franklin, Tim Webber
"Iron Man," John Nelson
Pick: I'll cheer for Iron Man but expect the groundbreaking effects for "Benjamin Button" to take this one.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"Auf der Strecke (On the Line)"
"Manon on the Asphalt"
"New Boy"
"The Pig"
"Spielzeugland (Toyland)"
Pick: This and the next two categories are fun because you know NOBODY sees these movies. My pick is based on the coolest name (see "Thoth" in 2002). This year, let's go with "The Pig".
"La Maison en Petits Cubes"
"Lavatory - Lovestory"
"Oktapodi"
"Presto"
"This Way Up"
Pick: Based on the above criteria...let's go with "Lavatory-Lovestory" which sounds neat because they reference a bathroom in the title. I need to look up what "Oktapodi" means though.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
"The Conscience of Nhem En"
"The Final Inch"
"Smile Pinki"
"The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
Pick: Hmmm...I'm not sure what "Nhem En" is but I'll go with "The Final Inch" only because it sounds like it would be a great title of an adult film.
See you at 8pm...
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